Jonny be better

Despite losing against South Africa last weekend, New Zealand will enter this world cup as red hot favourites, just as they did four years ago and four years before and well you get the picture. On each occasion this tag has been justified by their superior level of performance in the lead up to the competition. However time after time the men in Black have skulked away from the world stage disappointed. Much has been made about their inability to handle the pressure and expectation that is part and parcel of the favourites tag. If the All Blacks are victorious this autumn they will finally exorcise the 'choker' demon that has tarnished the black jersey for too long.

Given the above evidence just how important is form and performance prior to the World Cup? Ultimately it is the team that  that can produce results not attractive performances that will reign supreme come October 23rd. What can deduced from the 'choker' example is that winning a world cup requires a certain X factor that is perhaps not always needed to win test matches in the four years in between. 

Having been there and done it albeit as a player Martin Johnson should have a better understanding than opposing coaches of what is required to squeeze results when the pressure come on. One important judgement call that Johnson must make in the coming weeks is who to pick in the number 10 jersey. When making this call what should Johnson take into account? 

On the one hand you have Flood who made the jersey his own in England's second test victory over  Australia last summer. He backed this up with strong performances in both the Autumn and the Spring. His ability to attack the line and pick off weak links in opposition defences has been key to England's move to a more expansive game over the last season or two. However question marks still surround Flood's ability to manage a game on the back foot, his inability to put Wales to the sword in Cardiff given England's dominance would have placed further doubt in the mind of Johnson. The biggest concern for me would be the consistency of Flood's goal kicking particularly when the pressure is on, the case in point being last seasons Aviva premiership final during which he missed two goals in what was a four point ball game. Six points could be the difference between progress and an early flight home in a months time.

Then of course you have Jonny. Certainly not the form outside half over the last two seasons. However ask New Zealand fans and they will let you know that pre tournament form is not always to be trusted. Critics of Wilkinson have focused on how deep he stands on attack which detracts from his ability to engage defences and open up space for the likes of Foden and Ashton to do their thing. However what Wilkinson does have in abundance is an enormous confidence in his own ability, coupled with an understanding of how to win tight matches and the mentality to execute. Twelve years ago a 20 year old Wilkinson watched on as Jannie De Beer slotted five drop goals to kill off England's hopes at the quarter final stage. This was a prime example of that X factor that can separate sides come the all important knock out stages. De Beer showed how to win a cup match by keeping the score board ticking and forcing the opposition to chase the game under extreme pressure. Wilkinson clearly learned lessons from events that afternoon as he has built his World Cup pedigree on the ability to consistently deliver points when they matter most. The question for the England hierarchy I guess is can Jonny still produce with this level of consistency?

Given the decision to go with Wilkinson in Dublin this afternoon in England's final pre tournament hit out it would seem that Johnson will favour the experience and reliable boot over the attacking prowess of Flood come world cup time. The shirt is now his to lose as they say. In order to retain it Wilkinson must succeed on a ground where his rival crumbled earlier in the year. If he can put his stamp on the game and scoreboard at the Aviva then he will board the flight to New Zealand with the jersey in his bag.