Autumnal Significance

As I sit to write this, the 2015 Rugby World Cup countdown reads 315 days 22 hours and 33 minutes. This weekend, sees the return to our shores of the SANZAR superpowers on their end of year tours. Traditionally the Autumn Internationals provide an opportunity for the tourists to drip feed some new talent into the test environment whilst trying to exert dominance over their Northern Hemisphere opponents. For the hosts it is the start of the international season, a chance for the respective coaches to observe if their group can not only compete but defeat world class opposition. Given the proximity and location of next year's Rugby World Cup, does this year's series bare greater significance than previous?

In June 1997 the English football team visited France to compete in Le Tournoi a four team round robin tournament featuring France, Italy and Brazil. The Tournament was played out as a prelude for France 98 the following year. England left as victors having defeated both France and Italy. Fast forward 12 months and England were departing the tournament at the quarter final stage following that infamous night in St Etienne. What relevance does this have to the Autumn series? I hear you quip. Whilst I appreciate that the comparisons between international rugby and football are fleeting, one conclusion that can be deduced from the above example is pertinent to the question around the correlation between Autumn success and that in next year's Rugby World Cup. That is, in a 4 year cycle where World Cup success is the pinnacle, it is the ability to scale the opponent in the pressure cooker of all or nothing battles upon which the success of the process will inevitably be judged. In fact we need not even look outside Rugby to further evidence this. In the November tests of 2006 the All Blacks defeated France on successive weekends by an aggregate score of 70-14. However less than a year down the line it was France who overcame the red hot favorite All Blacks on another infamous night to advance to the World Cup semi. Indeed, the All Blacks only shook of their Perennial 'choker' tag by defeating France to claim the 2011 tournament. They defeated their old foe, Les Bleus, in the Final by a point despite beating them by a margin of 20 at the same ground in the group stage.

The above examples tell us that prior victories do not guarantee or perhaps even act as a valid indicator for future tournament success. On the flip side how detrimental might prior failures be? Close your eyes, your at Twickenham, the date 10th October 2015. Wales needing to win to qualify from their RWC group, lead Australia by 2 points with 3 minutes remaining. How might the mindset of the Welsh and in turn the ability to close the encounter be shaped by days past. Should Wales fail this Autumn, the above scenario would be set in a context whereby Wales had not defeated a Southern Hemisphere side since they overturned the Wallabies in 2008. The challenge at that point is not only the ability of the opposition but also that of exercising a demon that has haunted the Welsh under Gatland. For Wales winning and in particular winning a close one over coming weeks could be crucial to their mental preparation for 2015.  

The above is perhaps also true for Six Nations title holders, Ireland. The Irish, rejuvenated under Joe Schmidt have to go back to 2011 and their victory over Australia at Eden Park for their last taste of Southern Hemisphere glory.  Brian O'Driscoll weighed  in on the matter this week, stating that success was not built on the ability to beat top teams on one off occasions but to do so consistently, a trait that has  been so prominent in Irish provincial success in Europe over the past decade. The success of Ireland's autumn will perhaps be best gauged by how often you hear the term "miss"and "BOD" in the same sentence. 

At Murrayfield  the recent European form of Glasgow, who supply 11 starters to the XV, must give reason for optimism. Coupled with their new pedigree coach the Scots must beat Argentina and Tonga as a minimum, with a competitive game against the All Blacks required to breed internal confidence going into 2015.  

Finally, England. On the back of a Summer where they could, perhaps should have beaten New Zealand on consecutive weekends. They must see this Saturday as a tangible opportunity to mark Twickenham as their territory, their fortress, prior to the global invasion on their castle next year. Despite the absence of some first pick tight forwards and their midfield wrecking ball, Lancaster will want a minimum of 3 wins whilst 4 would send reverberations across rugby world on just how tough it will be to beat England at HQ on the biggest of  occasions.