The Dragon and the Wallaby - A tale of autumn woe.

Monday’s copy of the Sydney Morning Herald made for a somewhat disheartening read for the Welsh consumer. Granted, by no stretch the target audience, I still found it frustrating at the ease by which their first piece in the build up to today's test match between Wales and the Wallabies, dismissed - in but a paragraph, any Welsh hope of victory. Incensed, my immediate reaction was an internal blurt along the lines of ‘we got closer to the All Blacks than you did’. Yes, unfortunately this is now the barometer for the rest of the Rugby planet. I calmed, and read the rest of the piece that focused on how Ireland would pose the first real threat of derailment to Australian hopes of a first Grand Slam tour since their one and only success back in 1984.

The journo’s justification for the perceived lack of threat posed to the Wallaby slam train in Cardiff had nothing to do with form, quality of player, coaching reshuffle or playing style. Instead, it pointed solely to history; Wales do not win their first game of the autumn internationals, or spring tour as they call it down this way.

Q) When was the last time Wales were victorious in their opening match of the autumn?

A)http://www.wru.co.uk/eng/matchcentre/16815.php

Didn’t get it? I don’t think even Paul ‘Borussia Mönchengladbach’ O’ Connell, would have got that one! A sorry bit of history that does plenty to help one comprehend why the Australian media go into Saturday’s game with confidence levels brimming. Interestingly the bookies, who are perhaps more form less history seem to have this as a close tie, with only a 3.5 point handicap.

Why then do Wales struggle so much in week one? Let's start with the easy one, the Guinness Pro 12, so often the scapegoat for Welsh Rugby's ailments. The argument goes that the intensity of the Pro 12 pales into insignificance when compared with the sheer ferocity of test match ball. The Irish would rightly flag the point that they haven't faired so badly with their player base being tossed into the November fire from the same pot of cold water. The counter to that being that the comparative strength of the Irish teams has allowed them to better leverage the European Champions Cup (nee Heineken) as a stepping stone between the Pro 12 and International rugby.

If it is intensity that they are after, perhaps Wales wasted an opportunity for priming their test stars by excluding them from last weekend's Pro 12 derby matches. Of course there is risk of injury, but I’m sure the incentive of competing for the red jumper would kick the levels up a notch or two toward that expected at test level. I guess it's a shoot out between being fresh or battle hardened. Wales' notorious lack of strength in depth would render it difficult for Rob Howley to take a punt on fielding his internationals a week before a test. As an aside, it seems crazy to be scheduling Welsh derby matches on a weekend where the gun players are unlikely to be available. Regional rugby struggles enough on the marketing front without hampering it's own product.

The lack of intensity provided by the Pro 12 is the driver behind the the infamous fitness blocks that the Welsh players have become accustomed to upon arrival at their Vale training base. A necessary evil. Although this secondary pre-season may have provided the foundations for Wales' successful Six Nations campaigns, it is perhaps been guilty of leaving them overdone on fatigue and underdone on Rugby during the autumn.

It would be wrong to analyse the abysmal record in game one without exploring the wider context. The story of Wales in the autumn isn’t the best, whether we place the focus on the beginning, middle or the end. Predominantly a tale of the perennial nearly men – nearly men who occasionally do the whole hog - occasionally – but not against New Zealand. 

Should the Welsh team wish to provide the Welsh readership of the Sydney Morning Herald a more enjoyable experience next Monday morning* they will have to excel at all of the rugby stuff whilst also reversing the mental edge that the Wallabies have established over them in recent years. It's been so close, so often, so frustrating. A bad habit is very easy to dismiss but inevitably a good deal harder to overcome. 

*other motivations may be present.